When I think of television, I think of prime time. Friends and The Apprentice were two prime-time shows I used to schedule into my evening plans – and watch them religiously. Whether it was Ross (from Friends) talking about paleontology or The Donald firing an Apprentice hopeful, I watched these shows each week and knew I wasn’t the only person watching…there were millions of others watching at exactly the same time.
In 1960, the most popular television show captured 37% of the prime time audience, whereas the most popular show in 2005 (today), American Idol, captures around 15%. There are many reasons for this decline, but the one I subscribe to is that the advent of digital cable and satellite television has increased the availability of programming choices – more than tripling the average channel availability. As a result, on any given evening, the television viewing audience is stretched across a wide variety of channel options. The growth in viewing has given rise to an increasingly stratified advertising market. (The Life Group, 2005)
With advertising dollars pouring into television (USD $60 billion in 2005) as the number one advertising medium – the stratification of the prime time audience is not making it any easier for brand advertisers to reach the audiences that they used to.
The PVR/DVR has helped viewers record live television and watch it when they want. Lyra Research released a study that indicates that on average, DVR users watch 43% of their television on a time-shifted basis, and that, over time, DVR users increasingly time-shift their viewing. According to Lyra, DVR owners having the device for at least 2 years time-shift 51% of the time. When in time-shifted mode, DVR users say they skip past ads 79% of the time. This is important for brand advertisers who are trying to capture the prime-time audience, as the prime-time isn’t always watching during prime-time and yes, those commercials…well, they aren’t being watched per the research above.
The top 4 broadcast networks are usually the most heavily watched during prime-time and have had a CAGR of 3.4% over the last 5 years (1999-2004). The cable networks, which always were in the shadows of the broadcast Redwoods, have had a CAGR of 11% over the past 5 years (1999-2004). This is over 3 times the growth over broadcast which is an issue since cable earns a portion of its revenues through subscription dollars as opposed to broadcast.
With broadcast not earning any revenues from subscription dollars – only through advertising and sponsorship, and on a downward spiral for viewership…does this raise a red flag?
As for prime-time, viewers have many different media platform choices. In the past, viewers were solitarily confined to their homes (by choice) and had no reach into the outside world unless they turned on the television or radio. Today, they have multiple media sources available such as television, AM/FM/Satellite radio, Internet, cell phone, telephone, podcasts, and print choices (amongst others). For prime-time, of which Nielsen Media defines it as 8-11PM Monday through Sunday, and 7-11PM Sunday (EST), users now have many options available.
If media consumers (consumption’ers) turn into viewers during Prime-Time, out of the 1,000 who would have normally watched television years ago are now a fraction of it (due to other choices). Of those folks who are actively watching television during prime-time, growing percentage of them are consuming television through a filter – DVR. With this DVR, users are able to time-shift and watch the television when they want AND without interruption (ads). I can now watch a 30 minute sitcom in just under 22 minutes. Amazing.
Video on Demand, VOD is a huge concept and technology that could potentially change television from how we know it today. I’ve heard folks at major media companies talk about how the television experience is not going to be determined by the user having to only watch shows when they are scheduled – but the user actually picking the show they want, and when. This gives users the ability to pick a show such as Everyone Loves Raymond and watch it at 10am if they so choose. This allows viewers a very personalized and tailored experience, something that TrendWatching.com calls the YOUniverse (more about that in another posting). Forrester Research estimates that VOD usage, driven by the adoption of digital cable, will grow from 23% of homes in 2004, to 44% in 2009. This means that there is potentially a huge market for VOD and the YOUniverse effect in television.
So, prime-time is diluted now, as we aren’t forced to consume media during a specific time frame. We can watch a show scheduled for 8pm at 10pm if we choose to do so – or at 8am the next morning or even to shift it to a podcast. Prime-time audiences are on the decline on any one particular medium– however, marketers are increasingly trying to utilize new methods to embrace this dilemma.
