Social Networks as Fads?

Wired Magazine's September issue (9/2006) includes a reader "rant + rave" that says the following: "As a fad for the young, MySpace will fizzle out within two years, just as a new nightclub burns brightly with all the cool people until the mundanes discover it.  If old media wants to keep the young dazzled with its online clubs, it'll need a virtual velvet rope to keep out the unhip, including parents, teachers, and those over-the-hill 35 year-olds fishing for 18-year olds." (William McCarthy)

I agree partially with what William discusses above.  I like the MySpace vs. nightclub comparison. In the nightclub industry, you can only be "hot" for so long - it's a rule of thumb.  Owners of hot restaurants and nightclubs will generally close after they are the #1 club for the summer and go and open up somewhere else under a new name.  The reason for this is that the "elite" or "trendsetters" do not want to keep frequenting the same place year after year.  What will generally happen is that the "trendsetters" will find the place, party for a summer, then the name will spread to the masses and it'll become the mass place to go until that fizzles out.  Just think of Pangaea and Serafina here in New York... those were the hot-spots.

MySpace according to McCarthy "was" the hot-spot.  I like his analogy here.  The trendsetters are probably up in arms that 55+ million people have registered as well, so they are out scouting new social networks.  However, my question is, can you take 55+ million people away from Myspace as it's not the "hot club" anymore?  Probably not, but I do like his analogy.

Comments

[bill]

MySpace as a fad? I agree. However there are plenty of niche networks with specialized functionality that will retain their value to both consumers and advertisers.

[Laurent]

Intersting post!
I guess there is also (and always) a question of critical mass.

MySpace can satisfy new users because there are 55M of existing users.
Airtroductions got a fuel injection beginning of the year, reaching 200 to 500 subscriptions a day for a few months, and then back down.
Then there is also the answer to a user's need, and a question of needs vs age of users.

Discussed it here: http://blog.submate.com/2006/08/responding-to-social-networks-as-fads/

My 2 cents !

[Kim Dillon]

I think it is hard to compare a national or shezze, international behemoth like myspace to a cool club in LA. First, off, myspace is much bigger than any one club in the world. Its like saying can you get rid of Wal-Mart. Second, Myspace, really is what you make it. You can change and morph into something new. That being said, a Myspace Second Life Convergence would be interesting. . .
Good work sir!